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I've been doing some research this week on the prevalence of false accusations. Everyone in this forum is well-aware that the standard party line of FAs being 'extremely rare' is a laughable falsehood.
Reporting:
It is claimed that sexual assault and rape are vastly undereported to the police. I believe that this is probably the case. The problem arises when people use this fact to support the notion that instances of FA are tiny.
Here are the reasons genuine victims don't report rape and sexual assault (highlighted in the government's own study):
-Rape or sexual assault is a harrowing, life-altering event for anyone. Many people will not want to have to go through an ordeal of explaining in intimate detail the most personal horrific experience of their life. They find the idea embarrassing.
-90% of rape and sexual assault victims know their attacker. Be that a relative, spouse, friend, acquaintance or lover. This naturally disinclines the victim from reporting for fear or pressure of getting someone into trouble and that it was a private or family matter.
-They believe that the police can't do anything about it.
-It was too trivial to create a fuss over.
A key point here, is that, even in the UK government's own statistics - it does not cite 'fear of being disbelieved or prosecution for WPT/PCJ'.
Here are the reasons people will make a false accusation of rape or sexual assault:
-Monetary gain
-Family courts
-Attention
-Revenge
-Mental illness or instability
-As an excuse for engaging in sexual activity they are ashamed of
The things which disincline a genuine victim from reporting do not affect the FA. It is important to remember that there are far more reasons to make a FA regarding a sexual nature than there are for any other crime. This is because of the nature of a sexual crime. Being in the same room as someone when alone can be enough to make an FA. There need be no evidence whatsoever.
The false accusers only goal is to falsely accuse in order to achieve a goal (see list above). The genuine victim's primary goal may sometimes be justice and public protection, but may often be self or other-preservation or psychological well-being.
There cannot be such a thing as an 'unreported false accusation of rape' in crime statistics terms whereas there are proven to be a huge amount of genuine unreported sexual assaults and rapes. When you take these facts in the context of the police and CPS's mantra of 'believe every "victim"' no questions asked; then the statistics paint a rather worrying picture.
The Figures
The most recent statistics I could find were 2011/2012. Where police recorded 54,310 crimes of rape and other sexual crimes but that in a survey found that there were around 500,000 victims of sexual assault in that year. Of that 54,310, 16,450 were 'detected' - that means they resulted in some form of outcome for the suspect - whether that be a caution, or a trial. 37,860 people ended with an NFA or No Crime. Over a similar period (17 months from Jan 2011 - May 2012) there were in total 159 charging decisions for PCJ or WPT regarding false accusations of sexual assault and rape.
If we consider the in extremis argument that all 16,450 detected crimes were genuine and none were wrongly convicted or cautioned (an impossibility, but run with it for now). Also consider than most of the 159 charging decisions may have related to false allegations made before 2011/2012 period and that this calculation is for illustrative purposes only. What we are left with is out of 37,860 cases which were deemed not to have enough evidence to even charge or no crime was committed, that only 159 were false or malicious allegations. That's 0.42%.
To put that into context: It is suggesting that for every allegation for which there was not enough evidence to prosecute that 1/250 were false allegations. This is leaving out the fact that about 13000 of the 16,450 end up in a trial and only about 6,700 ended up in a conviction. So when we are being the most generous with the numbers, the outcome is still startling.
These figures are crude, and I'm not saying they're accurate but they do display an extremely concerning pattern.
The purpose
I'm a big believer in studies, polls and statistics. Anecdotally, everyone on here knows that FA of sexual assault and rape are prolific. We know that there is a huge problem, as do some police who choose to speak out (http://www.daftmoo.org.uk/mooforum/s...ion+statistics), but anecdotes don't win arguments or change policy, especially when the detractors are those supporting the victims of genuine rape and sexual assault. We are not a side the politicians have any interest in seeing to be aligned with, understandably.
So what do we do? The real crux of the issue comes down to how we record an instance of FA. Using police statistics is clearly a joke - this would suggest 0.42% at the absolute best of rape and sexual assault claims are false.
So my question to you, forum members, is what do we do? We need suggestions of how we can conduct a fair transparent accurate study and how that data is to be collected..
It's with this, not anecdotes to MPs that we can start to shift the sands in the just direction.
If anyone thinks I'm wildly out on my maths or deductions please let me know where and why and I will adjust accordingly. Just remember these are meant to be illustrative and not an accurate calculation.
References:
https://www.gov.uk/government/upload...w-jan-2013.pdf
https://www.theguardian.com/law/2014...pe-allegations
I've been doing some research this week on the prevalence of false accusations. Everyone in this forum is well-aware that the standard party line of FAs being 'extremely rare' is a laughable falsehood.
Reporting:
It is claimed that sexual assault and rape are vastly undereported to the police. I believe that this is probably the case. The problem arises when people use this fact to support the notion that instances of FA are tiny.
Here are the reasons genuine victims don't report rape and sexual assault (highlighted in the government's own study):
-Rape or sexual assault is a harrowing, life-altering event for anyone. Many people will not want to have to go through an ordeal of explaining in intimate detail the most personal horrific experience of their life. They find the idea embarrassing.
-90% of rape and sexual assault victims know their attacker. Be that a relative, spouse, friend, acquaintance or lover. This naturally disinclines the victim from reporting for fear or pressure of getting someone into trouble and that it was a private or family matter.
-They believe that the police can't do anything about it.
-It was too trivial to create a fuss over.
A key point here, is that, even in the UK government's own statistics - it does not cite 'fear of being disbelieved or prosecution for WPT/PCJ'.
Here are the reasons people will make a false accusation of rape or sexual assault:
-Monetary gain
-Family courts
-Attention
-Revenge
-Mental illness or instability
-As an excuse for engaging in sexual activity they are ashamed of
The things which disincline a genuine victim from reporting do not affect the FA. It is important to remember that there are far more reasons to make a FA regarding a sexual nature than there are for any other crime. This is because of the nature of a sexual crime. Being in the same room as someone when alone can be enough to make an FA. There need be no evidence whatsoever.
The false accusers only goal is to falsely accuse in order to achieve a goal (see list above). The genuine victim's primary goal may sometimes be justice and public protection, but may often be self or other-preservation or psychological well-being.
There cannot be such a thing as an 'unreported false accusation of rape' in crime statistics terms whereas there are proven to be a huge amount of genuine unreported sexual assaults and rapes. When you take these facts in the context of the police and CPS's mantra of 'believe every "victim"' no questions asked; then the statistics paint a rather worrying picture.
The Figures
The most recent statistics I could find were 2011/2012. Where police recorded 54,310 crimes of rape and other sexual crimes but that in a survey found that there were around 500,000 victims of sexual assault in that year. Of that 54,310, 16,450 were 'detected' - that means they resulted in some form of outcome for the suspect - whether that be a caution, or a trial. 37,860 people ended with an NFA or No Crime. Over a similar period (17 months from Jan 2011 - May 2012) there were in total 159 charging decisions for PCJ or WPT regarding false accusations of sexual assault and rape.
If we consider the in extremis argument that all 16,450 detected crimes were genuine and none were wrongly convicted or cautioned (an impossibility, but run with it for now). Also consider than most of the 159 charging decisions may have related to false allegations made before 2011/2012 period and that this calculation is for illustrative purposes only. What we are left with is out of 37,860 cases which were deemed not to have enough evidence to even charge or no crime was committed, that only 159 were false or malicious allegations. That's 0.42%.
To put that into context: It is suggesting that for every allegation for which there was not enough evidence to prosecute that 1/250 were false allegations. This is leaving out the fact that about 13000 of the 16,450 end up in a trial and only about 6,700 ended up in a conviction. So when we are being the most generous with the numbers, the outcome is still startling.
These figures are crude, and I'm not saying they're accurate but they do display an extremely concerning pattern.
The purpose
I'm a big believer in studies, polls and statistics. Anecdotally, everyone on here knows that FA of sexual assault and rape are prolific. We know that there is a huge problem, as do some police who choose to speak out (http://www.daftmoo.org.uk/mooforum/s...ion+statistics), but anecdotes don't win arguments or change policy, especially when the detractors are those supporting the victims of genuine rape and sexual assault. We are not a side the politicians have any interest in seeing to be aligned with, understandably.
So what do we do? The real crux of the issue comes down to how we record an instance of FA. Using police statistics is clearly a joke - this would suggest 0.42% at the absolute best of rape and sexual assault claims are false.
So my question to you, forum members, is what do we do? We need suggestions of how we can conduct a fair transparent accurate study and how that data is to be collected..
It's with this, not anecdotes to MPs that we can start to shift the sands in the just direction.
If anyone thinks I'm wildly out on my maths or deductions please let me know where and why and I will adjust accordingly. Just remember these are meant to be illustrative and not an accurate calculation.
References:
https://www.gov.uk/government/upload...w-jan-2013.pdf
https://www.theguardian.com/law/2014...pe-allegations
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